Bio & context
Anonymous Dutch analyst who created the Stock-to-Flow model comparing Bitcoin scarcity to price.
PlanB is a pseudonymous Dutch institutional investor who introduced the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model for Bitcoin in March 2019. The model treats Bitcoin like commodities (gold, silver) where scarcity (stock-to-flow ratio) determines price. Stock = existing supply, Flow = annual production (mining). Bitcoin's S2F increases every halving (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024), reducing new supply. PlanB's model predicted Bitcoin would reach $55K-100K by 2021-2024—it hit $69K in November 2021. He later introduced S2FX (cross-asset model) comparing Bitcoin to gold/silver phase transitions. The model has critics who argue it's overfitted to historical data, but it's become the most influential Bitcoin pricing framework. PlanB maintains anonymity but shares analysis on Twitter to 1.9M followers and Medium articles.
Philosophy in their own words
Bitcoin's scarcity-driven monetary properties make it comparable to gold. Halving cycles reduce supply, driving long-term price appreciation.
Approach & method
Long-term Bitcoin holder using S2F model for price projections. Buy during bear markets (low S2F multiple), accumulate ahead of halvings. No day trading—pure HODLing strategy. Diversification into gold and real estate as inflation hedges.
Key strategies
- 1. Stock-to-Flow Model: Scarcity (S/F ratio) correlates with price. Bitcoin S2F = 56 post-2024 halving
- 2. Halving-Based Cycles: Buy 12-18 months before halving, sell 12-18 months after
- 3. Phase Transitions: Bitcoin transitions from payment system → store of value → digital gold
- 4. HODL: Never sell Bitcoin, only accumulate during bear markets
- Published Stock-to-Flow model (March 2019)
- Predicted $55K-288K Bitcoin price range (2020-2024)
- S2FX cross-asset model (2020)
- 1.9M Twitter followers
- S2F model most cited Bitcoin valuation framework
- Model predicted 2020-2021 bull run magnitude
- Bitcoin reached $69K in Nov 2021 (S2F predicted $55-288K range)
- Influenced institutional Bitcoin narrative
Key metrics
- S2F model R² correlation: 95%+ (2009-2023)
- Predicted $55-288K range for 2020-2024 cycle
- Bitcoin reached $69K (Nov 2021), within model range
- Model accuracy degraded in 2022-2023 (critics note)
S2F model criticized for overfitting historical data. Predicted $100K+ by end of 2021, Bitcoin didn't sustain. Some view model as confirmation bias rather than predictive.