# Risk Parity Portfolio (Ray Dalio)
**Moeilijkheid:** advanced · **Timeframe:** Long-term (rebalance quarterly) · **Asset:** stocks, bonds, commodities, gold
**Strategie van:** Ray Dalio
**Risk/Reward:** Low volatility, consistent returns across cycles

## Samenvatting
Verdeel risico gelijk over assetklassen, niet kapitaal. Dalio's All Weather Portfolio overleeft alle economische omstandigheden.

Ray Dalio's Risicopariteit benadering balanceert risicobijdrage over assets in plaats van dollarbedragen. Traditionele 60/40 portefeuilles hebben 90% risico van aandelen. Risicopariteit gebruikt leverage op obligaties/grondstoffen om aandelenrisico te matchen, wat echte diversificatie creëert. Dalio's All Weather Portfolio: 30% aandelen, 40% lange termijn obligaties, 15% middellange obligaties, 7,5% goud, 7,5% grondstoffen.

## Kernprincipes
- Equalize risk contribution, not capital allocation
- Include assets that thrive in different economic regimes
- Growth environments: stocks, corporate bonds
- Inflation environments: commodities, TIPS, gold
- Deflation environments: treasuries, cash

## Instap-regels
- Allocate: 30% stocks, 40% LT bonds, 15% IT bonds, 7.5% gold, 7.5% commodities
- Rebalance quarterly or when allocations drift 5%+
- Use leverage on bonds if desired (institutional approach)

## Uitstap-regels
- No exit - permanent portfolio allocation
- Rebalance to targets quarterly
- Adjust only if economic regime fundamentally changes

## Risico's
- Diversification across economic scenarios
- No concentration in single asset
- Regular rebalancing maintains risk balance

## The Problem with Traditional 60/40: Hidden Risk Concentration
For decades, financial advisors recommended the classic 60% stocks, 40% bonds portfolio. It seemed balanced—you weren't all-in on either asset class. But Ray Dalio spotted a critical flaw: while the capital was balanced, the risk wasn't.

Stocks are roughly 3x more volatile than bonds. In a 60/40 portfolio, stocks contribute about 90% of the total portfolio risk. When stocks crash—as they did in 2008 (-37%)—the 40% in bonds barely cushions the blow. Your 'balanced' portfolio still loses 20%+.

Dalio's insight: true diversification means balancing risk contribution, not dollar allocation. If stocks bring 3x more risk per dollar, you need 3x fewer stock dollars (or more bond dollars, potentially with leverage) to achieve equal risk contribution. This is the foundation of Risk Parity—and why Bridgewater's All Weather Portfolio weathered 2008 with only a 4% loss.

## The All-Weather Portfolio: Thriving in Any Economic Season
Ray Dalio designed the All Weather Portfolio to perform in any economic environment. He identified four 'seasons' that move asset prices: rising growth, falling growth, rising inflation, and falling inflation (deflation). Each season favors different assets.

The allocation: 30% stocks (growth + inflation), 40% long-term Treasury bonds (falling growth + deflation), 15% intermediate-term Treasury bonds (stability), 7.5% gold (inflation hedge), 7.5% commodities (inflation + growth). Notice how bonds dominate—this balances risk because bonds are less volatile than stocks.

Historical performance validates the approach. During 2008's financial crisis: S&P 500 fell 37%, but All Weather lost only 4%. During 2020's COVID crash: S&P fell 34% peak-to-trough, All Weather dropped 10%. In 2022's rate hiking cycle: S&P fell 25%, All Weather fell 18%. The portfolio doesn't outperform in strong bull markets, but it dramatically reduces drawdowns while still compounding at 7-9% annually over decades.

## Understanding Asset Class Correlations: Why Diversification Works
Risicobalans works because different vermogensklassen respond differently to economic conditions. When stocks crash during recession fears, Treasury bonds typically rally as investors flee to safety and the Fed cuts rates. When inflation spikes, commodities and gold rise while bonds suffer. These opposite reactions create the diversification benefit.

The key metric is correlation—how assets move relative to each other. Stocks and bonds have historically had low or negative correlation (when one zigs, the other zags). Commodities correlate positively with inflation but negatively with stocks during deflation scares. Gold often moves independently of both.

By combining assets with low correlations in risk-balanced proportions, you create a portfolio where gains in one asset offset losses in another. The total volatility is lower than any single component, yet returns remain positive across economic cycles. This is the mathematical magic of true diversification—you're not just spreading money around, you're strategically combining assets that protect each other.

## Using Leverage Responsibly: Equalizing Returns Across Asset Classes
Here's the risicobalans paradox: if you allocate heavily to low-volatility bonds to balance risk, your returns suffer. Bonds yield 3-4% while stocks historically return 10%. A truly risk-balanced portfolio (say, 25% stocks, 75% bonds) might only return 5% annually.

Institutional risk parity funds like Bridgewater solve this with hefboomwerking—borrowing to amplify bond exposure. If you leverage 40% bonds at 2x, they contribute 80% notional exposure, boosting returns while maintaining risk balance. The leveraged bonds now contribute similar expected returns to the stock allocation.

Retail investors can access this through ETFs like RPAR (Risk Parity ETF) or by using Treasury futures/leveraged bond ETFs. However, leverage adds complexity and cost. A simpler approach for individuals: accept lower returns from an unlevered All Weather allocation (~7% annually) in exchange for dramatically lower drawdowns and better sleep. The wealth compounds more slowly, but you're far more likely to stay invested through crashes—which is ultimately what determines long-term success.

Bron: https://daytraders.nl/strategies/risk-parity-portfolio-ray-dalio