# Fibonacci Retracement Strategy
**Moeilijkheid:** intermediate · **Timeframe:** Days to weeks · **Asset:** stocks, forex, commodities
**Strategie van:** Peter Brandt
**Risk/Reward:** Low risk (tight stops), high reward (3:1+ RR ratio)
**Win rate:** 58%

## Samenvatting
Gebruik Fibonacci niveaus (38,2%, 50%, 61,8%) om hoge-waarschijnlijkheid instappunten te identificeren tijdens pullbacks in trends.

Fibonacci Retracement maakt gebruik van wiskundige ratio's die in de natuur voorkomen en ook verschijnen in marktpsychologie. Na een sterke trendbeweging, trekken prijzen vaak terug naar Fibonacci niveaus (38,2%, 50%, 61,8%) voordat ze de trend voortzetten. Traders gaan in op deze niveaus met strakke stops, richtend op het vorige high/low of Fibonacci extensies.

## Kernprincipes
- Identify clear trend (uptrend or downtrend)
- Draw Fibonacci from swing low to swing high (or vice versa)
- Wait for pullback to 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8% level
- Enter with confirmation (volume, candlestick pattern)

## Instap-regels
- Strong trend established (20%+ move)
- Pullback to 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8% Fibonacci level
- Bullish reversal pattern at Fibonacci level (hammer, engulfing)
- Volume increases on reversal candle

## Uitstap-regels
- Stop loss below next Fibonacci level (or swing low/high)
- Target 1: Previous high/low
- Target 2: Fibonacci extension (127%, 161.8%)
- Trail stop with Fibonacci levels

## Risico's
- Risk 1% per trade
- Stop loss 5-10% below entry
- Target 15-30% gains (3:1+ RR)
- Scale out at multiple targets

## The Fibonacci Sequence: Nature's Blueprint in Markets
In 1202, Italian mathematician Leonardo of Pisa—nicknamed Fibonacci—introduced a sequence that would later be found throughout nature: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55... Each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers. More remarkably, dividing any number by its successor approaches 0.618 (the Golden Ratio), while dividing by the number two places ahead approaches 0.382.

These ratios appear everywhere in nature: the spiral of a nautilus shell, the branching of trees, the arrangement of sunflower seeds. Researchers have found similar patterns in human behavior and, by extension, financial markets where collective human psychology drives prices.

In trading, Fibonacci ratios identify probable reversal zones during pullbacks. The key levels—23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%—represent the percentage retracement of a prior move. When a stock rises from $50 to $100, the 38.2% retracement level is $80.90, the 50% level is $75, and the 61.8% (golden ratio) level is $69.10. Prices frequently pause, bounce, or reverse at these levels.

## Key Fibonacci Levels: Understanding Each Retracement Zone
Each Fibonacci level has distinct characteristics that experienced traders recognize. The 23.6% retracement is the shallowest pullback—it occurs in strong momentum moves where buyers are eager to re-enter. If price bounces here, the trend is exceptionally strong. However, entries here are riskier because the pullback may deepen.

The 38.2% retracement is considered the 'healthy' pullback zone. It represents a normal correction within a strong trend, offering a good balance between confirming the trend and providing entry opportunity. Many institutional algorithms target this level.

The 50% retracement—though not technically a Fibonacci number—is psychologically significant. It represents 'half back,' a level traders intuitively watch. Combined with the 61.8% level (the golden ratio), the 50-61.8% zone is often called the 'golden pocket'—the highest-probability reversal zone.

The 61.8% retracement is the golden ratio itself and the most watched level. Pullbacks to 61.8% that hold suggest the trend will continue strongly. If 61.8% fails, expect deeper retracement to 78.6% or complete trend reversal.

## Drawing Fibonacci Retracements Correctly
Proper Fibonacci placement is crucial—incorrect drawing produces meaningless levels. The rules are simple but must be followed precisely. In an uptrend, draw from the swing low (the starting point of the move) TO the swing high (the peak before pullback begins). In a downtrend, draw from swing high TO swing low.

A swing low is a candle low that is lower than the lows of the candles immediately before and after it. A swing high is a candle high that is higher than the highs of the candles immediately before and after it. Use clear, obvious swing points—not minor fluctuations.

The time frame matters. Daily charts produce more reliable Fibonacci levels than hourly or minute charts because they represent more significant price action. However, intraday traders can use Fibonacci on lower timeframes if the swing move is substantial (at least 3-5% for stocks, 50-100 pips for forex).

Multiple Fibonacci drawings from different swing points can create 'confluence zones' where several levels cluster. These are the highest-probability reversal zones because multiple technical factors align.

## Confluence with Other Indicators: Building High-Probability Setups
Fibonacci levels gain power when they align with other technical factors. The more confluence, the higher the probability of reversal. Peter Brandt, with 40+ years of profitable trading, never trades Fibonacci levels alone—he waits for confirmation from additional indicators.

Moving average confluence occurs when a Fibonacci level aligns with a key moving average (50-day, 100-day, 200-day). If the 61.8% retracement lands at the same price as the 50-day moving average, both retail and institutional traders are watching that level—increasing its significance.

Support and resistance confluence happens when historical price levels match Fibonacci levels. If a stock previously found support at $75, and the current 50% Fibonacci retracement is also at $75, the level has added historical validation.

Candlestick pattern confirmation provides the entry trigger. Wait for a bullish reversal pattern (hammer, engulfing, morning star) to form at the Fibonacci level before entering. This confirms buyers are stepping in, rather than hoping they will. Volume should increase on the reversal candle.

Bron: https://daytraders.nl/strategies/fibonacci-retracement-strategy