# Deep Value Screening (Benjamin Graham)
**Moeilijkheid:** intermediate · **Timeframe:** 2-5 years · **Asset:** stocks
**Strategie van:** Benjamin Graham
**Risk/Reward:** Moderate risk, high reward if patient

## Samenvatting
Systematisch screenen naar zwaar ondergewaardeerde aandelen onder intrinsieke waarde met Graham's kwantitatieve criteria.

Benjamin Grahams Deep Value Screening gebruikt wiskundige filters om aandelen te vinden die met aanzienlijke kortingen op hun intrinsieke waarde handelen. Belangrijke metrics zijn K/W < 15, K/B < 1,5, current ratio > 2 en schuld/eigen vermogen < 0,5. Graham geloofde dat door een gediversifieerd mandje aandelen te kopen dat aan deze strikte criteria voldoet, je marktoverschrijdende rendementen behaalt met lager risico.

## Kernprincipes
- Use quantitative screens to find undervalued stocks
- Focus on margin of safety (buy below intrinsic value)
- Diversify across 20-30 positions to reduce risk
- Be patient - value realization takes 2-5 years

## Instap-regels
- P/E ratio < 15 (preferably < 10)
- Price-to-Book < 1.5 (ideally < 1.0)
- Current assets > 1.5x current liabilities
- Total debt < total equity

## Uitstap-regels
- Stock reaches fair value (+50% from entry)
- Fundamentals deteriorate
- Better opportunity emerges (rebalance)

## Risico's
- Never put more than 5% in single stock
- Diversify across 20+ positions
- Rebalance annually
- Accept that some picks will fail

## Meet Mr. Market: Your Emotionally Unstable Business Partner
Benjamin Graham introduced one of investing's most powerful mental models: Mr. Market. Imagine you own a business with a partner who suffers from wild mood swings. Every day, Mr. Market offers to buy your share or sell you his—but his prices are driven purely by emotion, not logic.

On optimistic days, Mr. Market offers absurdly high prices. On pessimistic days, he's desperate to sell at fire-sale valuations. The key insight? You're never obligated to trade with him. You can simply ignore his offers when they don't make sense.

This metaphor revolutionized how rational investors view stock prices. A falling stock price doesn't mean the business is worth less—it might just mean Mr. Market is having a bad day. Graham's students, including Warren Buffett, built fortunes by waiting for Mr. Market's pessimistic days to buy wonderful businesses cheaply.

## Margin of Safety: The Golden Rule of Value Investing
Graham's most important concept is the 'margin of safety'—the difference between a stock's intrinsic value and its market price. If you calculate a company is worth $100 per share, Graham would only buy at $66 or less. This 34% cushion protects against calculation errors, unforeseen problems, and bad luck.

Why such a large buffer? Graham understood that even careful analysis can be wrong. Earnings might disappoint. Competition might intensify. Management might make mistakes. By buying with a substantial margin of safety, you can still profit even when things don't go perfectly.

Think of it like engineering a bridge. Engineers don't build a bridge that can barely support the expected load. They build one that can handle 3-4 times the expected weight. The margin of safety protects against the unknown—and in investing, there's always plenty of unknown.

## Graham's Quantitative Filters: The Numbers That Matter
Graham developed specific numerical criteria to identify undervalued stocks. His core filters include: Price-to-Earnings below 15 (preferably below 10), Price-to-Book below 1.5 (ideally below 1.0), current assets at least 1.5 times current liabilities, and total debt less than equity.

Why these specific numbers? A low P/E ratio means you're paying less for each dollar of earnings. A low P/B ratio means you're buying assets cheaply—in extreme cases, you might pay less than the company could get by selling everything today. Strong current ratios and low debt ensure the company can survive tough times.

Graham applied these filters mechanically, removing emotion from the process. He didn't care if a stock was 'exciting' or had a compelling story. If it passed the screens, it went into the diversified portfolio. If it didn't, he moved on—no matter how persuasive the narrative.

## GEICO: Graham's Greatest Pick
In 1948, Benjamin Graham's investment fund bought 50% of GEICO Insurance for $712,000. At the time, GEICO was a small auto insurer selling directly to government employees—cutting out agents to offer lower premiums.

Graham recognized GEICO traded far below its intrinsic value. The insurance business generated steady profits, had a clear cost advantage, and was growing. Over the following decades, that $712,000 investment grew to be worth over $400 million—a return of more than 55,000%.

The GEICO example shows Graham's methods weren't limited to 'cigar butt' stocks on the verge of bankruptcy. He could identify quality businesses trading below their worth. His student Warren Buffett later bought the entire company for Berkshire Hathaway, calling it one of his best investments ever.

Bron: https://daytraders.nl/strategies/deep-value-screening-benjamin-graham